Is Now a Good Time to Buy a €1M+ Home in Lisbon or Cascais? What the 2026 Data Really Shows

Portugal entered 2026 after a record year for residential property. Prices rose sharply, transaction value reached a new high and international demand remained visible. Yet buyers looking above €1 million in Lisbon or Cascais are not operating in exactly the same market as the average Portuguese buyer.

Based on RE/MAX Cidadela’s experience advising buyers and sellers in the Cascais and Lisbon markets since 2004, the luxury segment is not weak and Portugal is not experiencing a broad property downturn. What has changed is the balance within parts of the premium market: buyers are more selective, overpriced listings are easier to identify and properties without clear differentiation may take longer to attract a credible offer.

For a well-prepared international buyer, that can create negotiating opportunities. But it does not mean that every €1M+ home is overpriced or that prime properties can be bought at a large discount. The real opportunity depends on the micro-location, the property’s condition, its legal file, the seller’s expectations and evidence from comparable sales.

Quick Summary

• Portugal recorded 169,812 housing transactions in 2025, worth €41.2 billion. This represented annual increases of 8.6% in transaction numbers and 21.7% in value.
• Purchases by buyers with tax domicile outside Portugal fell to 8,471 homes, 13.3% fewer than in 2024, although international demand did not disappear.
• Nationality and tax residency must not be confused. Brazilian nationals led foreign buyers by number, while British and American buyers recorded the highest average purchase values among the main foreign nationalities.
• Cascais has a much higher concentration of €1M+ listings than Lisbon, but the difference is driven largely by premium micro-markets such as Cascais and Estoril.
• Non-resident buyers are generally subject to a flat 7.5% IMT rate on residential purchases under the 2026 rules, although statutory exceptions may apply.
• This is not a general buyer’s market. It is a more selective market in which due diligence, realistic comparables and patience can improve the buyer’s position.

Portugal’s Housing Market Is Strong — But Not Every Segment Moves at the Same Speed

In 2025, Portugal recorded 169,812 residential transactions with a total value of €41.2 billion. Compared with 2024, the number of transactions increased by 8.6% and their value rose by 21.7%. The national House Price Index also increased by 17.6% over the year, with existing homes appreciating faster than new housing.

Those figures do not support the idea of a nationwide property crash. They show a market with strong price growth, limited supply in many locations and continued domestic demand.

However, national averages can hide important differences. A €250,000 apartment purchased by a resident household in an inland city and a €2 million villa in Cascais do not respond to the same buyer pool, financing conditions or decision process.

The premium market is smaller, more international and more sensitive to presentation, documentation and pricing. When a luxury property is genuinely rare, correctly priced and located in a high-demand micro-area, buyers may still face competition. When several similar homes are available, or when the asking price reflects the owner’s expectations rather than completed sales, buyers have more time to compare and negotiate.

This distinction is essential: a strong national market can coexist with a more selective luxury segment.

Non-Resident Purchases Fell, but International Buyers Have Not Disappeared

In 2025, buyers with tax domicile outside Portugal acquired 8,471 homes, a decrease of 13.3% from the previous year. That was the third consecutive annual decline in this residency category.

This does not mean that foreign nationals bought only 8,471 properties. Many foreign citizens already live and pay taxes in Portugal and are therefore counted as resident buyers.

The distinction matters:

• Tax residency identifies whether the purchaser is resident or non-resident for tax purposes.
• Nationality or country of birth identifies the buyer’s origin, regardless of where that person currently lives or pays tax.

Mixing the two categories can produce misleading headlines. The fall in non-resident transactions shows that fewer purchases were completed directly by people domiciled abroad. It does not show that foreign participation in Portugal’s property market disappeared.

Which International Buyers Were Most Active?

Among buyers born outside Portugal, Brazilian nationals completed 9,808 purchases in 2025, an increase of 27.5% and the highest number among foreign nationalities. Angola followed with 4,145 acquisitions and France with 3,765. These totals include both residents and non-residents.

British and American buyers stood out for a different reason: average transaction value. UK buyers paid an average of €512,585, while US buyers averaged €479,403, both more than 120% above the average for Portuguese-national buyers.

Online search behaviour also indicates that international interest remains active. Idealista data for May 2026 placed the United States first among international searches for homes in Lisbon, representing 12% of foreign visits, followed by France and the United Kingdom at 10% each.

Search traffic is not the same as a completed sale. It measures interest and research rather than signed deeds. Nevertheless, it confirms that Lisbon remains highly visible to international buyers.

The most accurate conclusion is therefore not that foreigners have left Portugal. It is that the international market is changing: fewer buyers may be completing purchases from abroad, while those who remain active include higher-value US and UK purchasers as well as a large population of foreign-born residents.

Where Is the €1M+ Inventory: Lisbon or Cascais?

A mid-July 2026 snapshot of active Idealista listings showed a major difference in the composition of supply:

These figures describe advertised inventory, not completed sales. They should therefore be read as a measure of what buyers could see on the market at that moment, rather than proof of market value or demand.

Cascais has a far greater concentration of premium property. Nearly six in ten advertised homes were priced above €1 million. This reflects the municipality’s stock of villas, larger apartments, gated developments, sea-view properties and high-value locations.

But “Cascais” is too broad to function as a single luxury market. In the same snapshot, approximately 73.3% of listings in Cascais e Estoril were above €1 million and 43% were above €2 million. In São Domingos de Rana, only around 18% exceeded €1 million. Alcabideche and Carcavelos e Parede occupied intermediate positions.

Lisbon is also highly fragmented. Belém had a luxury concentration comparable with some parts of Cascais, with 64.1% of listings above €1 million. Avenidas Novas and Parque das Nações also had significant premium inventory, while broader and more mixed parishes such as Arroios offered far more options below that threshold.

The practical lesson is simple: buyers should compare micro-locations, not municipalities. A villa in Birre, an apartment in Monte Estoril, a renovated home in Belém and a new development in Parque das Nações are different products with different buyer pools.

Does More Luxury Inventory Mean More Negotiating Power?

Not automatically.

A high number of €1M+ listings can give buyers more choice, but asking-price inventory alone does not prove that sellers will accept discounts. Before deciding how much to offer, buyers should examine five points.

1. Comparable completed sales

Asking prices reveal seller expectations. Registered or professionally verified sales show what buyers have actually paid.

A property advertised at €1.5 million is not necessarily worth €1.5 million simply because nearby owners are asking similar amounts. The comparison must consider location, internal and external areas, condition, views, parking, plot size, construction quality and legal status.

2. Time on the market

A property listed for several months may offer more flexibility, particularly if it has already undergone price reductions or attracted offers that were rejected.

However, time on the market must be interpreted carefully. Some homes remain advertised because the seller has no urgency or has set a price that is intentionally ambitious.

3. Uniqueness

A rare sea view, exceptional plot, prime address, architectural quality or turnkey condition can limit negotiating room even in a more selective market.

The availability of 20 alternative villas is not particularly relevant if only one has the combination of privacy, location, condition and view that the buyer requires.

4. Legal and technical risk

Licensing problems, inconsistent registered areas, unauthorised works, condominium disputes or incomplete documentation can justify additional conditions, renegotiation or withdrawal.

These problems should not simply be converted into a discount. Some irregularities can delay financing, prevent future works or create difficulties when the property is eventually resold.

5. Seller motivation

A vacant property, relocation, inheritance or financing deadline can affect the structure of a deal, but the buyer should avoid assuming urgency without evidence.

A well-positioned offer is not simply a low offer. It combines a defensible price, proof of funds or financing, a credible completion schedule and conditions that protect the buyer without making the transaction unnecessarily uncertain.

What Does a €1M+ Purchase Cost in 2026?

Decree-Law 97/2026 introduced a general flat IMT rate of 7.5% for non-resident purchasers acquiring an urban property exclusively for residential use.

The law also provides exceptions, including cases where the buyer becomes a Portuguese tax resident within two years or places the property into qualifying residential rental under the prescribed conditions.

For a non-resident buyer to whom the flat rate applies, the principal taxes can be illustrated as follows:

The table excludes legal fees, registration and deed costs, technical inspections, bank valuation, mortgage Stamp Duty and other financing expenses.

Resident buyers may be taxed differently, particularly below the upper IMT threshold, so each acquisition should be calculated according to the buyer’s residency, intended use and ownership structure.

As a working budget, many international buyers should allow approximately 8% to 10% above the purchase price, with more required when financing costs or extensive professional due diligence are involved. This is a planning range, not a substitute for an individual calculation by a Portuguese lawyer or tax adviser.

Can Americans, British Citizens and Other Foreigners Still Buy Property in Portugal?

Yes. Portugal does not generally require a foreign buyer to hold Portuguese residency before purchasing a property.

An international buyer will normally need a Portuguese tax number, or NIF, appropriate identification and evidence supporting the source and transfer of funds. A NIF is required for the tax obligations associated with purchasing or selling Portuguese real estate.

The transaction then progresses through legal and technical checks, negotiation, a promissory purchase and sale agreement where applicable, and the final deed or authenticated private document.

Buying a property must be separated from immigration and tax planning. A property purchase no longer qualifies as a new real-estate route to Portugal’s Golden Visa. AIMA’s current list of eligible investment activities includes job creation, research, cultural support and other qualifying routes, but not direct property acquisition.

Likewise, buying a home does not automatically make the purchaser a Portuguese tax resident. Residency, immigration status, financing and ownership are related decisions, but they are not the same legal process.

Should You Buy Now or Wait?

There is no universal answer. The decision should depend less on predictions about the national market and more on the property, your time horizon and your financial readiness.

The first quarter of 2026 reinforces the need for nuance. The number of Portuguese housing transactions fell 10.5% year on year, but the median transaction price increased 19.8% to €2,337 per square metre.

Lower transaction volume therefore did not translate into a national price decline.

Waiting solely for a broad fall in Portuguese prices is not supported by the current national data. Waiting for the right property, a more realistic seller or complete due diligence can nevertheless be a rational strategy.

Broker’s Verdict: Is 2026 a Good Time to Buy Above €1 Million?

For a financially prepared buyer with a medium- or long-term objective, 2026 can offer a useful window to buy in Lisbon or Cascais — but the opportunity is selective rather than universal.

The strongest buyer advantage is not that Portugal has become cheap. It is that the premium market gives disciplined buyers more room to compare properties, identify aspirational pricing and negotiate with evidence.

That advantage disappears when the property is genuinely rare, correctly priced and legally clean.

The wrong approach is to assume that every €1M+ listing should accept a large discount. The better approach is to understand what has sold, how long the property has been exposed, what alternatives exist and which legal or technical risks affect its value.

A smaller discount on a correctly priced, high-quality property can represent a better purchase than a large discount on an inflated asking price.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is 2026 a buyer’s market for luxury property in Cascais?

Not across the whole municipality. Certain properties face more competition from similar listings, while rare homes in prime micro-locations can still sell quickly.

It is more accurate to describe Cascais as a selective market in which the balance changes according to the parish, property type, quality and price.

How much can I negotiate on a €1M+ property in Portugal?

There is no reliable universal percentage. Negotiating room depends on the asking price relative to completed sales, time on the market, previous reductions, property condition, documentation and seller motivation.

A smaller discount on a correctly priced home may be better than a large discount on an inflated asking price.

Is Cascais or Lisbon better for a luxury buyer?

Cascais generally offers more villas, outdoor space, coastal living and a higher concentration of €1M+ inventory. Lisbon offers a more urban lifestyle and a wider variety of premium neighbourhoods and property types.

The right choice depends on daily routine, schools, commuting, privacy, preferred property type and the likely resale audience.

Do non-resident buyers pay more IMT in Portugal?

Under the 2026 rules, a general 7.5% IMT rate applies to many non-resident residential purchases, without the normal reductions or exemptions.

Statutory exceptions may apply, including becoming tax resident within two years or meeting qualifying rental conditions. Buyers should obtain tax advice before signing a binding contract.

Can buying a home give me Portuguese residency?

Property ownership alone does not automatically grant residency. The real-estate route is no longer included among the current qualifying Golden Visa investments.

Buyers who intend to relocate should analyse the appropriate immigration route separately.

What should I check before making an offer?

Check the property’s legal title, registered areas, licences, energy certificate, condominium position, planning restrictions, physical condition and recent comparable sales.

The offer should also state any financing, inspection or due-diligence conditions that are essential to the buyer.

Are listing prices reliable indicators of market value?

Not on their own. Listing prices indicate what owners hope to receive, while completed sales show what buyers have actually agreed to pay.

A professional valuation should therefore combine sold comparables with the property’s exact condition, characteristics and micro-location.

Conclusion

Portugal’s national property market entered 2026 from a position of strength, while parts of the €1M+ market in Lisbon and Cascais became more selective.

That combination can benefit an informed buyer, but only when the decision is based on micro-location, completed sales, property quality and careful due diligence rather than headline price growth or the number of online listings.

RE/MAX Cidadela has worked in the Cascais and Greater Lisbon markets since 2004. We help international buyers compare Lisbon and Cascais, assess realistic market value, review available properties and coordinate the buying process with legal, financing and technical professionals.

Considering a €1M+ Property in Lisbon or Cascais?

Before making a binding offer, speak with RE/MAX Cidadela. We can help you compare the asking price with real market evidence, assess the property’s micro-location and identify the legal, technical and financial issues that could affect your purchase.

Request a confidential property and market analysis

Still researching the buying process? Download our Step-by-Step Guide to Buying Property in Portugal.

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👤About the Author

By Pedro Pettermann
Pedro Pettermann is a Broker at RE/MAX Cidadela in Cascais, with over 20 years of experience in the real estate market across the Cascais coastline, Lisbon, Oeiras, and Sintra. With an MBA from IE Business School, he combines strategic vision with deep local expertise. Recognized as a specialist in the real estate market, mortgage financing, and digital marketing, he helps owners and buyers make confident and profitable decisions.

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At RE/MAX Cidadela, we have already helped more than 4,800 families successfully sell or buy the home of their dreams